US Tariffs: Producing Now Costs More, and Selling Is More Complicated — So Who Wins?

The U.S. decision to scrap its de minimis threshold (the rule that once allowed imports under $800 to enter duty-free) has shaken the global trade landscape.

For makers and small businesses, it means double trouble: producing now costs more, and selling is more complicated. However, in every disruption, there are both winners and losers. Tariff D-Day hasn’t just created problems — it’s reshaping the playing field. Let’s look at who stands to lose, and who could come out ahead.

US Tariffs: Producing Now Costs More, and Selling Is More Complicated — So Who Wins?

The Losers

Independent Makers & Artisans

For small-scale businesses, the pain is immediate.

• Higher production costs: importing raw materials, specialist tools, or fabrics now comes with duties of 10–50% or flat fees of $80–$200.

• Harder to sell internationally: every U.S.-bound order now needs full customs clearance, harmonised tariff codes, and often DDP shipping.

• Customer friction: U.S. buyers face unexpected duties or inflated shipping fees, increasing the likelihood of abandoned carts and refund requests.

The Tricky Part: Returns

Returns have always been a challenge for cross-border sellers, but under the new rules, they’re turning into a potential nightmare.

• A returned parcel may be subject to additional duties when it re-enters the original country.

• Sellers risk paying duties twice — once on the outbound sale and again when the unsold item is returned.

• Some carriers and customs authorities lack clear return protocols, so parcels can get stuck, delayed, or sent back with new fees attached.

• For low-value items, the cost of managing a return can easily outweigh the value of the product itself.

How common are returns?

• Across U.S. retail, approximately 16.5% of purchases are returned.

• In e-commerce, that figure rises to 20–30%, especially in fashion and apparel (where fit and style drive returns).

• However, for cross-border purchases, return rates are lower — around 5–10% — because international buyers are aware that returns are costly and often inconvenient.

• For handmade and considered items (such as those sold on Etsy), returns typically fall within the 5–8% range.

That may sound small, but under the new US Tariffs, even a handful of returns can create outsized problems. A few parcels sent back with duplicate duties or customs delays can wipe out weeks of profit — and sour customer relationships at the same time.

International Postal Networks

Postal services built on legacy systems are struggling to keep up. Many have paused shipments to the U.S. because they can’t yet handle parcel-by-parcel duty collection. Until they adapt, sellers and buyers are stuck with fewer, more expensive shipping options.

Low-Income U.S. Consumers

One of the unintended consequences is that families who once relied on low-cost imports from platforms like Temu or AliExpress now face higher prices on everyday goods. The very audience least able to absorb higher costs will feel the sharpest pinch.

The Winners

U.S. Manufacturers

Domestic producers of steel, textiles, and consumer goods suddenly look more competitive. With cheap imports curbed, U.S. factories and workshops gain breathing space to reclaim market share.

DDP-Capable Carriers

UPS, FedEx, and logistics providers offering Delivered Duty Paid options are positioned for growth. As Etsy, Amazon, and Shopify push sellers toward DDP, these carriers stand to capture significant new business.

Compliance & Customs Tech

Companies that simplify tariff codes, automate duty calculations, or manage customs entries are becoming essential. Platforms like Avalara and FlavorCloud are already gaining traction as sellers scramble to comply.

Wholesalers & 3PLs

Businesses that can consolidate shipments and act as the importer of record for bulk orders will thrive. Instead of thousands of risky parcels, a single duty-paid shipment clears customs once, making wholesale and 3PL fulfilment newly attractive.

Who Adapts, Wins

Tariff D-Day wasn’t designed with artisans in mind. It was aimed at curbing mass-market imports, but its ripple effects have had the greatest impact on small businesses, postal services, and cost-sensitive consumers.

Still, there’s opportunity in the upheaval. Makers who:

• Bundle products to lift order value,

• Shift to wholesale or U.S. fulfilment,

• Adopt DDP early,

• Reconsider return policies and communicate them clearly,

• Stay transparent with customers —

…will not just survive, but potentially gain an edge while competitors pause in confusion.

US Tariffs: Final Word

Yes, producing now costs more, and selling is more complicated. Returns are riskier, customers are more cautious, and postal systems are under strain. But disruption has always been a catalyst for innovation.

The real winners will be those who pivot quickly — whether that’s U.S. manufacturers reclaiming market share or independent makers finding innovative ways to deliver value across borders.